Turning Blue

Greg Bird applauds the fans after Game 1

So Origin 1 is behind us and finally NSW will play the series from in front. It was a fascinating game, which had incidents, some brilliance and a potential sign of a change of fortunes.

Overall New South Wales were fantastic and it was exactly the sort of win they needed to allow them to play with confidence for the rest of the series to try and end the Queensland streak. Going into the game, most people seemed to believe that NSW held the edge in the forward pack whilst Queensland had a more dangerous backline and of course held the edge in the all-important spine of 1, 6, 7 and 9.

New South Wales built their foundation on that forward pack and overall they destroyed the Maroon’s forwards, forcing Thurston and Cronk to play on the back foot for most of the game. Guys like Gallen, Watmough and Greg Bird are built to play Origin and didn’t disappoint.

However the standout was clearly Luke Lewis, who had one of the great individual Origin performances. No he didn’t score a try or have that many highlight plays, but his hit ups, tackles and passes were extraordinary and he never stopped. He rightfully won the Man of the Match award and it was well deserved for a player who often doesn’t get the plaudits of some of his more flashy or exciting colleagues.

On the other hand, I thought Mitchell Pearce had a very mediocre game for a victorious NSW side. Before I get accused of Rooster hating, I thought James Maloney was superb on debut and Michael Jennings was brilliant too. Pearce however, was non-existent. The guy is playing halfback, which if you don’t know, is supposed to be a pretty important position in a football team and yet he seemed to barely touch the ball. When he did he mostly just dropped it off for a forward to take a hit up and my only memory of him throwing a longer ball was when he underthrew a pass to Lewis, which Lewis unfortunately couldn’t reel in.

Pearce is a solid defender and he wasn’t poor there, but he certainly was no halfback either. In such a great team performance his individual effort won’t cop much criticism and I know he won’t be dropped, but it still should be pointed out that we won in spite of him and not because of him. Oh, I also thought Ryan Hoffman had a surprisingly poor game with some bad drops and not much impact.

The standouts for NSW in my eyes were the aforementioned Lewis, the always awesome at Origin level despite his club form Jarryd Hayne, Maloney on debut, the ever reliable Robbie Farah and the “Bash Brothers” Bird and Gallen.

This brings me to the Paul Gallen punching Nate Myles incident. Yes, I understand that Origin has a different atmosphere and level of leniency, but in my eyes Gallen was very lucky to stay on the field. It doesn’t matter if Nate Myles is a dirty player or if he plays for Queensland, Gallen put a deliberate high shot on him and then when Myles got up unhappy about it, Gallen rocked him with two punches.

Would Myles have punched Gal if Gal didn’t do it first? Maybe. But that incident was all Gallen and regardless of what game it happened in, in my eyes it is not on. Had a Queenslander done it to a Blue, all of NSW would be crying foul and especially if it happened to a player from the individual club you support. So the idea of “that’s Origin” is bullshit in my eyes. Rugby league is a contact sport but it is not a combat sport, even at Origin. That wasn’t a fight; it was one player deciding to punch another.

So those fans who genuinely think it was awesome, or if you think it’s great because it happened to Nate Myles, I think you watch football for the wrong reasons and need to reconsider your values. I like a bit of Origin biffo as much as the next guy, but last night was not that. Anyway, NSW got a lucky break, but Queensland have had numerous breaks over the last few years so it was bound to even out and I don’t feel too bad.

Meanwhile, what about on the Maroon side of things? They finally looked old after a near decade of dominating the Origin arena. Their forwards were dominated, Thurston was completely out of sorts and even the Storm ‘Big Three’ struggled to impact the game.

Greg Inglis barely touched the ball and the one time he finally got decent possession he created Queensland’s only try. I doubt they will do it, but I think they need to switch Inglis and Slater in Game 2, at least at various points during the game to get Inglis involved. He is simply too important and valuable to them to not utilise more. Plus he is one of the few Queensland playmakers that can create without the forwards getting momentum first.

As a biased Souths and NSW fan however, I hope he stays at centre, barely touches the ball and simply gets through the game unscathed.

Another takeaway from the game last night is that we have all still played as much State of Origin as Josh Reynolds. I like Josh Reynolds and think he will play plenty of Origin in his career. It is not his fault he didn’t play, nor is it his fault he was selected at all. But this idea of selection a utility player for purely backup reasons and not even using him is insane to me. Origin is the hardest, fastest, most tiring form of footy and NSW are giving up one of their bench spots as a ‘break glass in case of injury’ backup plan.

It is no coincidence that as NSW forwards got tired in the second half; Queensland scored their try and came close to scoring more. Yes we won anyway, but it damn sure would have been a lot more comfortable if we had another player with fresh legs out there. I don’t care if it’s a prop like Tim Grant or a bigger utility that can cover halves like John Sutton, but all 17 positions should be utilised.

A win should never cloud over things that weren’t good just because the overall result was.

Finally, it is being reported that Robbie Farah may have a broken eye socket and is in doubt for Origin 2. That is a nightmare for NSW as Farah is probably the hardest player to replace in the entire team. Go on, name his direct replacement if he can’t play, I’ll wait….

…

Exactly.

Who are our options at 9 without Farah?

Michael Ennis? He’s a mediocre footballer and failed at Origin level already

Josh Reynolds? A good player and would have replaced Farah if Farah came off in Game 1, but he isn’t a hooker.

Mitch Rein and Nathan Peats? Like them both as youngsters but nowhere near Origin level right now and I don’t think either would argue that.

Ryan Hinchcliffe? To be honest I feel like I’d pick Hinchy out of these names even though he is mostly playing lock, but I wouldn’t be happy about it. At least I trust him as a player and feel like he’d handle the Origin cauldron, but the gap from Farah down to the other options is troubling to say the least.

If I’m forgetting anyone please let me know.

Anyway, NSW got a fantastic result in Game 1 and look like a great chance to finally reclaim the Origin crown. I’ll just spend the next three weeks praying to the great cockroach in the sky that Robbie Farah is back in time for the next instalment.

Measuring the Intangibles: Brains Over Brawn

When it comes to measuring an athlete’s skills there are a lot of things we use to evaluate them. Things like size, strength, speed, endurance, ball skills and more depending on the sport itself. There is also something we hear about called ‘intangibles’, which is something some athletes have and some don’t. ‘Intangibles’ includes several things like personality, leadership, brains, decision making, attitude, heart, effort and all those attributes that can be harder to quantify and thus they are not tangible.

To create a successful sporting team you don’t need every single player to have those intangible qualities, but you definitely need a core of them. Culture is so important in sporting teams and the ones that create success for sustainable periods are those with an inbuilt culture of success.

Now obviously we can’t measure every aspect of the intangibles but we certainly can try measure elements of it. If I were running a sports team and able to choose the players we sign (and hopefully one day I will be), I would implement a system to make sure I was bringing in players not only of high character, but also of high intelligence, decision making in limited time and logic/reasoning ability.

Quite simply, I would make all players take an aptitude test. Some players would probably hate it and to be honest it might rule out certain players who shouldn’t be ruled out. But overall, I think I’d be doing pretty well on average if I was signing primarily players who scored highly on an aptitude test.

In the salary cap world, the actual talent of the players across most teams is relatively even. Yes there are outliers at the top and the bottom, but by and large most teams have a few stars surrounded by a bunch of role players with enough talent to be playing in the league. What separates the good teams from the bad are things like decision making in important moments, playing and sticking to the team plan and structures as well as some luck with injuries and the bounce of the ball.

The Melbourne Storm aren’t just built around three of the most talented players in the league, they are built around three of the smartest. The same can be said for the San Antonio Spurs, a team that has been in the title picture without fail since 1998. The Storm and the Spurs have a lot of similarities. They both are built around a coach and system that ties in perfectly with their star players and then smartly surrounded by underappreciated role players. These role players are crucial because they need to completely understand not only their role, but everyone on the team’s role. If one guy gets hurt, they are easily replaced because everyone buys into the system and understands it.

It sounds simple and easy, but if it were, everyone would be doing it successfully.

Up until they reach the professional level, a lot of athletes have relied purely on their natural talent levels. But at the professional level everyone else has that talent level too.  This is why we see guys with immense talent become ‘busts’ and never reach their potential at the pro level.

For this reason, if I was comparing an athlete with A level talent but a C level brain to an athlete with B level talent but an A level brain, I’d likely take the B level talent. I want to know I can maximise the talent of the player and get the consistency that comes with someone who will fit in to what the coach is trying to accomplish.

To evaluate this, I would likely look to implement the Wonderlic Test used for players entering the NFL Draft. The Wonderlic is a multiple choice test of 50 questions to be answered in 12 minutes or less. A score of 20 indicates average intelligence and 10 points is required to at least be considered literate.

It is considered important in the NFL primarily for positions with the most decision making, namely quarterback and the offensive linemen who protect him. It may surprise you, but those monsters protecting the quarterback are usually the smartest guys on the field and average the highest scores in the Wonderlic. This is because to be good as an offensive lineman, you need to process a lot of information very quickly and make the right decision, or else your pretty boy star quarterback will end up getting smashed. It is a high pressure job and requires brains, not just brawn. For reference, the average score for a quarterback is 24 and an offensive lineman is 26.

In rugby league for example, obviously the positions that would need to score the highest would be the ‘spine’ of the fullback, five-eighth, halfback and hooker. They are the playmakers and decision makers pulling the strings and implementing the coach’s system.

Without naming names, there are many players I have never rated or felt like were overrated because I felt like they didn’t have these qualities to lead their team. They had natural ability, but that doesn’t get you as far at the elite level. These are the players that lead fans to look at each other in shock when the player makes the worst decision at the worst time as opposed to someone maybe less talented, but does the smart thing and keeps his head and composure.

Cameron Smith looks like he should be doing your taxes and yet he is one of the greatest footy players of all time because he is like a coach on the field. Darren Lockyer was the same way and believe it or not larrikins like Andrew Johns and Brad Fittler were genius decision makers, not just talents, when it came to football. I bet they would score higher on the Wonderlic than some would imagine.

Look at a guy like Jeff Robson at the Cronulla Sharks. He would barely have enough natural talent to be in the NRL and yet he has become the glue of that team and Todd Carney absolutely needs Robson next to him to harness his own abilities. Fans of other teams and even some Sharks fans may wonder why they stick with Robson, but I’m sure Shane Flanagan trusts no one more than their number 7.

Obviously teams need some X-Factor type players and you don’t need an entire team of brain surgeons to win. But you need brains where it matters and you certainly do not want the lunatics running the asylum.

I think it would be fascinating if the AFL implemented the Wonderlic prior to the draft the same way the NFL does. I wonder how much it would accurately predict success at AFL level and whether teams would value it as highly as I do.

Also teams struggling and in need of a rebuild, like the Wests Tigers or Melbourne Demons, could implement the test to their own players and potential recruits, looking to use a different edge to get back to challenging for the NRL premiership. They already evaluate other factors; the brain should be in there too.

Getting a bunch of big, strong, fast guys will get you so far, but you need to make sure you have enough smart guys pointing them in the right direction. If the big, strong, fast guys also double as the smart guys, then that’s even better and how you end up with LeBron James or Greg Inglis.

Sometimes the best ideas are to steal other people’s ideas and implement them where they aren’t being used. The NFL has a good idea and it’s time we look to steal it.

Are You Ready For Some Football?

Greg Inglis on the fly last season

We are just over a week away from the start of the NRL season and to me the offseason has felt like a lifetime. Of course rugby league is once again in the news for reasons besides the actual game, as yet again the face of the NRL season launch has found himself in an off field situation, however I am not going to be discussing that particularly issue while we don’t know all the facts. It’s not entertainment and it’s not worth speculating publicly about.

There is so much to look forward to in the 2013 NRL season and I thought I’d share my thoughts on what I’m excited about:

• OK so this first one isn’t exactly the footy itself, but for the first time I will be playing Fantasy NRL in the draft format traditionally associated with American fantasy sports. It has existed in Australia before this year, but for the first time that I know of it is available for free (because who in their right mind would pay to play fantasy sports?) and if you know how obsessive I am about my Fantasy NBA, I am going to be just as bad when it comes to Fantasy NRL. Although I must admit, in light of recent developments, I’m glad we postponed our draft date.

• For the first time since I wasn’t a toddler the Rabbitohs go into a season with legitimately high expectations. A top four finish with a rookie coach and rookie halfback in 2012 has Rabbitohs fans excited and expecting the club to challenge for the premiership in 2013. It’s a bizarre feeling for a fan not used to success, at least in this sport and after attending the Charity Shield last Friday, my excitement levels to watch the Rabbitohs in 2013 could not be higher.

• A new era in State of Origin. Ricky Stuart is no longer the coach of the Blues and after being very critical of his decisions as coach in 2012, I am hopeful that the Blues will have a real opportunity to end the drought. Queensland is still going to be just as competitive and won’t hand it over, but hopefully Laurie Daley can become the NSW version of his old Canberra teammate Mal Meninga. I know I’m biased but it’s not in the interests of State of Origin for this domination to continue as it has as if one horse always wins in a two man race, eventually the race itself is no longer interesting.

• The new era in refereeing. Harrigan and Raper are out and Daniel Anderson is in and by all accounts, fans and pundits have been impressed during the preseason so far. Refs have been given more licence to make decisions, which should empower them and give them confidence and also they are now required to give an opinion when referring to the video ref. It remains to be seen how it goes, but it can’t be much worse and if it is a noticeable improvement then it will do wonders for the game.

• This one is less excitement and more general interest, but how will the league go without the shoulder charge. Players are bound to do it on occasion almost out of muscle memory and instinct and how they are punished will be of note. Also worth following is how TV networks respond to big hits them they happen, as historically they love promoting the big collisions, both during the game and in their promos and now those big collisions aren’t even legal. Will the game actually suffer like many predict? Or will it simply be a topic of conversation for a few weeks and then no one will care anymore?

• The rookies. Every year I love watching the kids I’ve seen dominating the Toyota Cup (now the Holden Cup, which is going to take some getting used to) coming up and taking the NRL by storm. My favourite young gun who I’m hoping gets plenty of NRL game time this year is Edrick Lee of the Raiders. He debuted in first grade against my Rabbitohs last year, but if he gets his chance in a pretty deep Raiders backline, he is going to be a big-time fan favourite and excitement machine.

• The inevitable controversy. This is weird, but sometimes it can be fun to get angry or worked up about a particular issue in footy. Whether it’s refereeing or rules or a team or whatever else, there will surely be something that gets us debating and arguing over the course of the season and whilst in the moment it might be frustrating, it’s part of what makes us love sport too.

• My team has Greg Inglis. You know… in case you forgot.

What are you excited about heading into the 2013 NRL season?

That’ll Do Rabbit, That’ll Do

Adam Reynolds opening the scoring against the Raiders

And so just like that the Rabbitohs season is over. Surprisingly almost all the Rabbitohs fans I’ve spoken to or seen post online seem to have a very similar mindset after the team was eliminated in the preliminary final.  Whilst the result was obviously disappointing, the loss was fair and yet so cruel due to the untimely injury to Adam Reynolds who is arguably the team’s most important player. That, in and of itself, is a huge statement to make about a rookie but there you go.

All fans seem to be very content with the result of the season as a whole, finishing third on the ladder, qualifying for the preliminary final and the emergence of several new players such as Reynolds, Everingham and Justin Hunt, as well as the development of others like Farrell, Peats, McQueen etc.

What I love most however, is that whilst the fans are quite content with how the season played out, the players themselves aren’t in the same boat. Nathan Merritt was quoted as saying he sees the season as a failure and that is exactly how I want him to feel. I don’t want him to feel like a failure, he most certainly isn’t, however if the team is happy with just being competitive, then the concern would be that 2012 is as good as it will get.

We see 2012 as a success because we naturally assume that a young team, with a first year coach will improve going forward. It makes sense that if the Rabbitohs can perform this well with youngsters and rookies in many positions as well as the first year of a new system, each year after will be even better. However, you really never know with this stuff. Look at the Tigers and Warriors change in fortunes from 2011 to 2012, or the Eels from 2009 when they made the Grand Final until now.

A friend of mine who supports the Eels warned me that I shouldn’t be satisfied with just getting this far because you never know when you’ll get this close again. When the opportunity is there, you have to take it. Not every team can be Melbourne or Manly and contend for years on end. The hope is that the Rabbitohs will be more like the Storm, where Maguire learned from Bellamy, and be able to turn a promising season into a successful era; however it is certainly not guaranteed.

As important as 2012 was for the Rabbitohs, 2013 is even more important. They will enter the season not just with expectations to be serious contenders, but anything short of the 2012 performance will be considered a failure, not just by the team but by the fans as well. Was 2012 the start of something, or one good year?

After years of being quite unlucky with injuries, 2012 was about as lucky as a club can get in that department for the Cardinal and Myrtle. Roy Asotasi was the only long term injury and he returned in time and in form to make a solid contribution to the finals series. Nathan Merritt missed the first part of the season but hit the ground running as soon as he returned. Even the Greg Inglis suspension could be considered a stroke of luck as it enabled GI to refresh his body for the backend of the season, whilst the team went 2-1 without him.

We can’t assume 2013 will be quite as lucky in that regard. The club has the depth now to cover for most positions, especially in the forwards, but it doesn’t surprise me to see rumours of interest in Blake Ayshford and Sandor Earl to add depth to the backline stocks. I’m also a fan of Jordan Tongahai who plays left centre for the Toyota Cup side.

Another question is whether Souths will be impacted more during Origin in 2013. Obviously Inglis will be missing. Te’o is another who might be selected for Queensland and then you have the possibility that Adam Reynolds might be called up for NSW or even finally Nathan Merritt might get his chance. If that happens, will the Rabbitohs have the form slump that the Storm and Broncos experienced after Origin was over and if so, will they be able to bounce back the way the Storm did and Broncos didn’t?

Optimistically I see the Rabbitohs getting at least as far as they did this year, but I certainly won’t be taking it for granted. For now I’ll spend the offseason content and very proud of the performance of a team that hadn’t won a finals game since I was a baby. Being there to see the team beat the Raiders and win a finals match is an experience I’ll never forget and for that I thank Michael Maguire and the entire team.

Now for South Sydney to march on. Glory Glory.