Showing posts with label LeBron. Show all posts
Showing posts with label LeBron. Show all posts

Wednesday, 15 May 2013

Measuring the Intangibles: Brains Over Brawn




When it comes to measuring an athlete’s skills there are a lot of things we use to evaluate them. Things like size, strength, speed, endurance, ball skills and more depending on the sport itself. There is also something we hear about called ‘intangibles’, which is something some athletes have and some don’t. ‘Intangibles’ includes several things like personality, leadership, brains, decision making, attitude, heart, effort and all those attributes that can be harder to quantify and thus they are not tangible.

To create a successful sporting team you don’t need every single player to have those intangible qualities, but you definitely need a core of them. Culture is so important in sporting teams and the ones that create success for sustainable periods are those with an inbuilt culture of success.

Now obviously we can’t measure every aspect of the intangibles but we certainly can try measure elements of it. If I were running a sports team and able to choose the players we sign (and hopefully one day I will be), I would implement a system to make sure I was bringing in players not only of high character, but also of high intelligence, decision making in limited time and logic/reasoning ability.

Quite simply, I would make all players take an aptitude test. Some players would probably hate it and to be honest it might rule out certain players who shouldn’t be ruled out. But overall, I think I’d be doing pretty well on average if I was signing primarily players who scored highly on an aptitude test.

In the salary cap world, the actual talent of the players across most teams is relatively even. Yes there are outliers at the top and the bottom, but by and large most teams have a few stars surrounded by a bunch of role players with enough talent to be playing in the league. What separates the good teams from the bad are things like decision making in important moments, playing and sticking to the team plan and structures as well as some luck with injuries and the bounce of the ball.

The Melbourne Storm aren’t just built around three of the most talented players in the league, they are built around three of the smartest. The same can be said for the San Antonio Spurs, a team that has been in the title picture without fail since 1998. The Storm and the Spurs have a lot of similarities. They both are built around a coach and system that ties in perfectly with their star players and then smartly surrounded by underappreciated role players. These role players are crucial because they need to completely understand not only their role, but everyone on the team’s role. If one guy gets hurt, they are easily replaced because everyone buys into the system and understands it.

It sounds simple and easy, but if it were, everyone would be doing it successfully.

Up until they reach the professional level, a lot of athletes have relied purely on their natural talent levels. But at the professional level everyone else has that talent level too.  This is why we see guys with immense talent become ‘busts’ and never reach their potential at the pro level.

For this reason, if I was comparing an athlete with A level talent but a C level brain to an athlete with B level talent but an A level brain, I’d likely take the B level talent. I want to know I can maximise the talent of the player and get the consistency that comes with someone who will fit in to what the coach is trying to accomplish.

To evaluate this, I would likely look to implement the Wonderlic Test used for players entering the NFL Draft. The Wonderlic is a multiple choice test of 50 questions to be answered in 12 minutes or less. A score of 20 indicates average intelligence and 10 points is required to at least be considered literate.

It is considered important in the NFL primarily for positions with the most decision making, namely quarterback and the offensive linemen who protect him. It may surprise you, but those monsters protecting the quarterback are usually the smartest guys on the field and average the highest scores in the Wonderlic. This is because to be good as an offensive lineman, you need to process a lot of information very quickly and make the right decision, or else your pretty boy star quarterback will end up getting smashed. It is a high pressure job and requires brains, not just brawn. For reference, the average score for a quarterback is 24 and an offensive lineman is 26.

In rugby league for example, obviously the positions that would need to score the highest would be the ‘spine’ of the fullback, five-eighth, halfback and hooker. They are the playmakers and decision makers pulling the strings and implementing the coach’s system.

Without naming names, there are many players I have never rated or felt like were overrated because I felt like they didn’t have these qualities to lead their team. They had natural ability, but that doesn’t get you as far at the elite level. These are the players that lead fans to look at each other in shock when the player makes the worst decision at the worst time as opposed to someone maybe less talented, but does the smart thing and keeps his head and composure.

Cameron Smith looks like he should be doing your taxes and yet he is one of the greatest footy players of all time because he is like a coach on the field. Darren Lockyer was the same way and believe it or not larrikins like Andrew Johns and Brad Fittler were genius decision makers, not just talents, when it came to football. I bet they would score higher on the Wonderlic than some would imagine.

Look at a guy like Jeff Robson at the Cronulla Sharks. He would barely have enough natural talent to be in the NRL and yet he has become the glue of that team and Todd Carney absolutely needs Robson next to him to harness his own abilities. Fans of other teams and even some Sharks fans may wonder why they stick with Robson, but I’m sure Shane Flanagan trusts no one more than their number 7.

Obviously teams need some X-Factor type players and you don’t need an entire team of brain surgeons to win. But you need brains where it matters and you certainly do not want the lunatics running the asylum.

I think it would be fascinating if the AFL implemented the Wonderlic prior to the draft the same way the NFL does. I wonder how much it would accurately predict success at AFL level and whether teams would value it as highly as I do.

Also teams struggling and in need of a rebuild, like the Wests Tigers or Melbourne Demons, could implement the test to their own players and potential recruits, looking to use a different edge to get back to challenging for the NRL premiership. They already evaluate other factors; the brain should be in there too.

Getting a bunch of big, strong, fast guys will get you so far, but you need to make sure you have enough smart guys pointing them in the right direction. If the big, strong, fast guys also double as the smart guys, then that’s even better and how you end up with LeBron James or Greg Inglis.

Sometimes the best ideas are to steal other people’s ideas and implement them where they aren’t being used. The NFL has a good idea and it’s time we look to steal it.

Tuesday, 19 March 2013

We are All Witnesses… Sigh


LeBron throws down a monster dunk over Jason Terry


Sometimes when watching something happen, whether it be in sports or just in the news, we understand in real time that what we are witnessing is historic and memorable. It can be for good or bad reasons depending on the circumstances, but some things are just clearly in that realm of events that stay with you.

In sports specifically it can be an individual event or it can be a broader thing like a team or athlete as a whole. I recently wrote about Black Caviar and Michael Jordan and they both fall into this category as individuals. Jordan’s Bulls’ historic 1995-96 season where they finished 72-10 also falls into it. In terms of individual games we can look at memorable finishes like both Rabbitohs vs. Roosters games from 2012, which fans who watch will always remember.

The 2012-13 Miami Heat and specifically LeBron James are without question in that category; even if they do not go on to win the championship. At time of writing they have just completed their 23rd consecutive victory after beating my own beloved Boston Celtics in Boston, for the first time in years. The Celtics may have been without Rajon Rondo or Kevin Garnett, but watching the game you could tell it was truly a moment. The crowd was insane, the Celtics who did play were ferocious against their rivals and Uncle Jeff Green was playing like one of the aliens in Space Jam.

Despite having a big lead in both the first and second halves (both times they were run down) the Celtics couldn’t shut the door and then LeBron slammed it shut himself with a dagger three. When LeBron returned to the game with nine minutes remaining the Heat were down double digits and regardless of the crowd or the Celtics’ pressure, he simply wouldn’t be denied.

At the end of the day, one team had LeBron James and the other one didn’t. The same can be said of every game they have played this season and particularly during what is now the second longest win streak in NBA history and counting.

In June, the value of the streak and the season will hinge dramatically on whether they are able to go back-to-back and retain their championship, but even if they do not, I will never forget the quality of basketball I have witnessed during this run. I have watched a lot of basketball in my life and whilst I never saw the Showtime Lakers or Russell’s Celtics, I did see Jordan’s Bulls and even the Shaq/Kobe era Lakers. This LeBron season is the greatest individual basketball performance I have ever seen, in what is arguably the most talented NBA player pool ever.

In any other season Kevin Durant would be on his way to an easy MVP season and people would say it was deserved and not controversial. But yet he isn’t even a close second to what LeBron is doing right now. LeBron always had the physical capability to go to this level but it would require the mental aspect as well as the hard work to improve his game to actually reach it. Clearly all of those stars have now aligned and the rest of the league is in trouble.

Many NBA fans that are not Heat fans hate the Heat and hate LeBron. I certainly fall into that category, especially as a Celtics fan. It is hard to reconcile my hatred for their winning with the appreciation as a basketball fan for what they are doing. But sometimes the joy of the game overtakes the jersey they are wearing and whilst I may hate the Heat, I respect them to no end.

Heat fans however will mostly believe this streak and season is meaningless if it doesn’t end in a ring. Obviously that is true in a large sense, but I still believe that win or lose, this season will be remembered forever and talked about for years.  The 2007 New England Patriots season which ended in Super Bowl disaster will never be forgotten (many other factors in that one too) and clearly it would be a different narrative had they won the title, but that season will always be remembered for them more than anything else.

Even the Houston Rockets 22 game win streak that the Heat just surpassed will never be forgotten and that team never got close to winning the championship and they never displayed quite the level of play the Heat have reached.

It is hard to compare across eras, especially with the rule changes and league expansion, but the peak level of this Heat team could very well be higher than the peak reached by those legendary ‘96 Bulls or ‘86 Celtics, which are considered by many to be the two best individual season teams in NBA history.

The best comparison I can think of for this Heat/LeBron team is across the Atlantic Ocean. Lionel Messi and Barcelona reached a level of football performance that I had never seen before in any team sport, until now. Stylistically the teams are worlds apart, as the Barcelona style would compare better with the aforementioned ’86 Celtics and their passing. This heat team is built around stars and a few key role players; more like Barcelona’s great rivals Real Madrid.

But despite their differences, both the Heat and Barcelona have transcended the game and put on a performance that is more like art than sport. At this stage, both teams are competing against themselves more-so than the team trying to defend them and both are doing so behind the performance of a once in a lifetime athlete.
Barcelona have already won plenty of trophies during this era, whereas the Heat have only won the title once so far, but in both instances we will be telling our grandkids about watching both LeBron James and Lionel Messi dribble a ball.

Love him or hate him, as Nike likes to tell us, we are all witnesses.