Showing posts with label draft. Show all posts
Showing posts with label draft. Show all posts

Wednesday, 15 May 2013

Measuring the Intangibles: Brains Over Brawn




When it comes to measuring an athlete’s skills there are a lot of things we use to evaluate them. Things like size, strength, speed, endurance, ball skills and more depending on the sport itself. There is also something we hear about called ‘intangibles’, which is something some athletes have and some don’t. ‘Intangibles’ includes several things like personality, leadership, brains, decision making, attitude, heart, effort and all those attributes that can be harder to quantify and thus they are not tangible.

To create a successful sporting team you don’t need every single player to have those intangible qualities, but you definitely need a core of them. Culture is so important in sporting teams and the ones that create success for sustainable periods are those with an inbuilt culture of success.

Now obviously we can’t measure every aspect of the intangibles but we certainly can try measure elements of it. If I were running a sports team and able to choose the players we sign (and hopefully one day I will be), I would implement a system to make sure I was bringing in players not only of high character, but also of high intelligence, decision making in limited time and logic/reasoning ability.

Quite simply, I would make all players take an aptitude test. Some players would probably hate it and to be honest it might rule out certain players who shouldn’t be ruled out. But overall, I think I’d be doing pretty well on average if I was signing primarily players who scored highly on an aptitude test.

In the salary cap world, the actual talent of the players across most teams is relatively even. Yes there are outliers at the top and the bottom, but by and large most teams have a few stars surrounded by a bunch of role players with enough talent to be playing in the league. What separates the good teams from the bad are things like decision making in important moments, playing and sticking to the team plan and structures as well as some luck with injuries and the bounce of the ball.

The Melbourne Storm aren’t just built around three of the most talented players in the league, they are built around three of the smartest. The same can be said for the San Antonio Spurs, a team that has been in the title picture without fail since 1998. The Storm and the Spurs have a lot of similarities. They both are built around a coach and system that ties in perfectly with their star players and then smartly surrounded by underappreciated role players. These role players are crucial because they need to completely understand not only their role, but everyone on the team’s role. If one guy gets hurt, they are easily replaced because everyone buys into the system and understands it.

It sounds simple and easy, but if it were, everyone would be doing it successfully.

Up until they reach the professional level, a lot of athletes have relied purely on their natural talent levels. But at the professional level everyone else has that talent level too.  This is why we see guys with immense talent become ‘busts’ and never reach their potential at the pro level.

For this reason, if I was comparing an athlete with A level talent but a C level brain to an athlete with B level talent but an A level brain, I’d likely take the B level talent. I want to know I can maximise the talent of the player and get the consistency that comes with someone who will fit in to what the coach is trying to accomplish.

To evaluate this, I would likely look to implement the Wonderlic Test used for players entering the NFL Draft. The Wonderlic is a multiple choice test of 50 questions to be answered in 12 minutes or less. A score of 20 indicates average intelligence and 10 points is required to at least be considered literate.

It is considered important in the NFL primarily for positions with the most decision making, namely quarterback and the offensive linemen who protect him. It may surprise you, but those monsters protecting the quarterback are usually the smartest guys on the field and average the highest scores in the Wonderlic. This is because to be good as an offensive lineman, you need to process a lot of information very quickly and make the right decision, or else your pretty boy star quarterback will end up getting smashed. It is a high pressure job and requires brains, not just brawn. For reference, the average score for a quarterback is 24 and an offensive lineman is 26.

In rugby league for example, obviously the positions that would need to score the highest would be the ‘spine’ of the fullback, five-eighth, halfback and hooker. They are the playmakers and decision makers pulling the strings and implementing the coach’s system.

Without naming names, there are many players I have never rated or felt like were overrated because I felt like they didn’t have these qualities to lead their team. They had natural ability, but that doesn’t get you as far at the elite level. These are the players that lead fans to look at each other in shock when the player makes the worst decision at the worst time as opposed to someone maybe less talented, but does the smart thing and keeps his head and composure.

Cameron Smith looks like he should be doing your taxes and yet he is one of the greatest footy players of all time because he is like a coach on the field. Darren Lockyer was the same way and believe it or not larrikins like Andrew Johns and Brad Fittler were genius decision makers, not just talents, when it came to football. I bet they would score higher on the Wonderlic than some would imagine.

Look at a guy like Jeff Robson at the Cronulla Sharks. He would barely have enough natural talent to be in the NRL and yet he has become the glue of that team and Todd Carney absolutely needs Robson next to him to harness his own abilities. Fans of other teams and even some Sharks fans may wonder why they stick with Robson, but I’m sure Shane Flanagan trusts no one more than their number 7.

Obviously teams need some X-Factor type players and you don’t need an entire team of brain surgeons to win. But you need brains where it matters and you certainly do not want the lunatics running the asylum.

I think it would be fascinating if the AFL implemented the Wonderlic prior to the draft the same way the NFL does. I wonder how much it would accurately predict success at AFL level and whether teams would value it as highly as I do.

Also teams struggling and in need of a rebuild, like the Wests Tigers or Melbourne Demons, could implement the test to their own players and potential recruits, looking to use a different edge to get back to challenging for the NRL premiership. They already evaluate other factors; the brain should be in there too.

Getting a bunch of big, strong, fast guys will get you so far, but you need to make sure you have enough smart guys pointing them in the right direction. If the big, strong, fast guys also double as the smart guys, then that’s even better and how you end up with LeBron James or Greg Inglis.

Sometimes the best ideas are to steal other people’s ideas and implement them where they aren’t being used. The NFL has a good idea and it’s time we look to steal it.

Wednesday, 24 October 2012

Fantasyland


If only my league had a championship ring

My name is Daniel and I am an addict. My addiction isn’t one you’ll see on the show ‘Intervention’ though. There’s no TV commercial warning people about the dangers of it, but it has become as big a part of my life as a drug addiction would (I imagine). My addiction is fantasy sports and more specifically fantasy NBA. Fantasy sports are a multibillion dollar industry, particularly in the US, although in recent years it has exploded around the rest of the world too.

You see for most sports fans, we realised a long time ago that we were never going to make it as professional athletes, so the dream changed from playing the game to running the game. We are all armchair critics about what teams should do and all want to either coach or be the general manager of our favourite teams. Signing and trading players and building a team of athletes to win a championship. This is as close as we will ever get and it’s probably why fantasy sports has become an empire.

To quickly explain for the uninitiated, fantasy sports involves picking teams of players and using their real life statistics to calculate who wins. Basically it’s a maths game masked as a sports game to make us feel less like the nerds we are.

I almost kicked my addiction this year when for the first time in a decade since I started playing that I strongly considered quitting. You see with how serious I and my friends take it, the game is mentally exhausting over the course of about seven months a year and at the end of it, most of the guys end up disappointed with how they did after all the effort they put in. After years of effort without reward, it was all getting a bit much for me. Fortunately for me, another friend in my league, someone whom I only met through the league and he ended up giving me my career, was in the same boat and so we decided to team up and share the burden.

You see as much as we felt a desire to walk away; we knew that walking away from the game meant a lot more than that. Fantasy basketball is not only a big part of our lives; it has become a sort of glue that maintains it. I’ve made friends through it and also maintained friendships that in all likelihood may have ended years ago if we didn’t have this thing keeping us together. I can go months without talking to some of the guys, but as soon as we see each other we always know what we have in common and can talk about.

At weddings and birthdays and other social gatherings where more than one of us are in attendance, conversation always finds a way to turn towards the subject, whilst wives and girlfriends and other friends look at us like we are insane and try to change the subject unsuccessfully. In fact there are even cases of guys having actual relationship issues stemming from how important our league was to them. You might even remember in the film ‘Knocked Up’ where a wife suspected her husband of cheating and it turns out he was actually at his friend’s house for their fantasy baseball draft. “I got Matsui” he proclaimed happily, whilst she looked on in shock and horror. Fantasy sports is our mistress.

Our fantasy draft (where we pick our teams) is this Saturday and at this point it has evolved from a mere two hour exercise into more of an alternate Spring Carnival. We are having lunch on Friday and then the annual post draft barbeque to analyse how we all did and begin the months of trash talk. The emails and texts and calls have already been going for weeks as we study and prepare. I put more effort into my preparation for our fantasy draft than I did for any exam in high school or university and that’s not even an exaggeration.

Our league has even drafted a constitution based on previous incidents of controversy over the past decade to attempt to prevent future instances and keep everything as clean as possible. Because our league is almost half lawyers, it’s written in full legal terms and amendments have to go through a process. We’ve even had threats of overthrowing our commissioner when people don’t like certain rulings. However, we really aren’t all that different to millions of other guys out there doing the same thing.

There is even a hilarious sitcom called ‘The League’ about guys just like us who take their league just as seriously. Not only do we all see a lot of ourselves in that show, but it proves to us just how common what we are doing is, even if not by most of the people in our lives.

At the end of the day we are basically like Trekkies or Dungeons and Dragons fans, but our obsession is basketball.

Some of the guys think I was never really that close to quitting, that I was always going to come crawling back as the season approached and that I love it too much to walk away. The truth is I really was very close to giving up something that has meant so much to my life. But now that I’m back, I couldn’t possibly be more committed or obsessed once more.

I only hope that you have something with your friends that means as much to you.