Back in a past life I used to write a Melbourne Cup Form
Guide article that was read by thousands of people. It was really cool to get
my take out there to such a big audience, however the pressure was certainly on
to deliver. At first results were good as I had a stretch where my Cup tipping
was strong, culminating with a run where I picked Makybe Diva, Delta Blues and
Efficient in successive years. Unfortunately after that my form took a turn for
the worse. Last year Dunaden was one of a few horses I had a few bucks on and
the reigning champ is going to take a lot of beating.
This year I’m not going to do a complete form guide and talk
about every horse, because frankly, I’m no longer being paid to do so. But I
will tell you who I like and why.
It’s no exclusive to suggest the international horses are
where most of the smart money is this year. The last two winners are back and
both looked fantastic in the Caulfield Cup. I would have no hesitation in
simply saying get on Dunaden and Americain if it wasn’t for the large
weights they are carrying. They are big boy weights for some big boy horses, so
I do think they are both capable of winning despite the penalty, but it
certainly levels the playing field. Then again, that’s the entire point of a
handicap race.
Last year’s runner up Red
Cadeaux obviously has to be in contention as well. He’s the type of horse I
think you have to put in your trifecta bets because even if he doesn’t win, I’d
be shocked if he didn’t finish in the top 5 or so. However he hasn’t raced in
months so there isn’t any recent form to comment on.
Mount Athos seems
to be the horse everyone is looking at to be the best chance to end the French
domination. I haven’t seen it race but the experts think it’s got the quality
and the Cumani stable often bring a horse that runs strong. Plus I want to be
in the good books with Francesca Cumani, so I have to speak highly of her camp.
Concern is that this race is in a different stratosphere to anything it has run
to date, so it is somewhat unproven. Absolutely a chance to win, but starting
to get a bit too short in betting for my liking.
Sanagas is a Bart
Cummings horse. That by itself should make you at least think about it. He hasn’t
done anything lately to make you drool, but you know he’s going to run the
journey and a Bart horse at juicy odds is always a decent option.
Ethiopia is an
interesting one. He finished fourth in the Cox Plate behind three horses that
aren’t going to run over 3200m and he won the Australian Derby. He is only 4
and is capable of winning and also capable of not running out the 3200m. If he
runs well, I think he might start next year’s race as favourite. I also have a
soft spot for Ethiopia as I have a cousin from there, so I am a bit biased.
Will certainly be in my bets.
Fiorente beat Red
Cadeaux only a few months ago. That surely counts for something. Gai Waterhouse
has never won a Melbourne Cup and she isn’t without a hope here. You will get
decent enough odds on him, so if you are looking for value it’s not a terrible
choice. I personally am not betting on him though.
Galileo’s Choice
is Dermot Weld’s entry this year from Ireland. I made money on his last winner
in Media Puzzle so I highly respect any horse he brings over. He has a good
record, will be trained to the minute and you know he will run the journey.
Odds seem to reflect that he has to be taken seriously without being one of the
favourites.
Glencadam Gold is
the other Gai Waterhouse runner and the more high profile of the two. He started
favourite and failed miserably in the Caulfield Cup. He clearly has the talent,
but it would be some sort of turn around to bounce back and win the big one
after such a poor run.
Green Moon is
another tough one to place. Runner up in last year’s Caulfield Cup, but then
didn’t run well in the Cox Plate this time out. He loves Flemington but has
never run the distance. Basically there are pros and cons everywhere for him.
Some are going to love him and some are going to hate him and only one side
will look smart after the race. I’m not backing him, but I also won’t be
shocked if I end up with egg on my face.
My Quest For Peace
is the other Cumani runner and I’m a fan, not just because of Francesca either.
He finished 5th in the Caulfield Cup after being swamped by the
French connection of Dunaden and Americain, but still it was a solid run and
showed he can hang with the big boys. He has drawn the inside barrier so should
be able to get good position, but also needs to avoid being boxed in. Corey
Brown is a top jockey though so I trust him in that department. Not tipping him
to win, but strongly considering him in my boxed trifecta.
Lights of Heaven
is one for the ladies. She is the only female in the field and isn’t without a
shout. She finished third in the Caulfield Cup and has previously won the
Brisbane Cup over this distance. She is by Zabeel who breeds stayers as well as
anyone and has Black Caviar’s jockey Luke Nolen on board. If her odds stay
north of $20, you would be doing well to have a flutter.
Kelinni won the
Lexus on Saturday. Has possibly the best jockey in the field on board in Glen
Boss and is also carrying the lightest weight. Those are all factors that
suggest Kelinni is a contender. I don’t think he wins, but I do think Bossy
will get the best out of him and he won’t be all that far behind.
Now comes the time when I actually put my neck on the line
and give you my tip. To be honest my opinion between now and the race might
change, although I do have a top 4 I’m pretty set on. As it stands I can’t look
past the superb run Dunaden had in the Caulfield Cup and despite the weight he
is carrying, I think he is a great chance to go back to back. The three horses
I struggled to leave out of the placings were My Quest For Peace, Lights
of Heaven and Kelinni.
My First Four:
- Dunaden
- Ethiopia
- Red Cadeaux
- Americain
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