Eggs in One Basket

Jamie Soward won't be wearing the Red V from 2014

Building a sports team in a league with a salary cap is complex. It’s about educated risks and trying to keep good players at a price that is equal to or perhaps even better than their on-field value.

When clubs sign players, the signing has to be judged not only on the ability of the player, but also on whether the club is getting value for money for that player. You might think that as long as the player is good, it doesn’t matter if he is overpaid because he is still contributing, but that would be incorrect.

We live in a world where clubs are all very even and need every little edge they can get. If you are paying a B player the money of an A player, you are losing the ability to pay that money to an actual A player.

The Brooklyn Nets in the NBA have a solid team. They are built around several big names and clearly are a playoff team. Unfortunately, they also own some of the worst contracts in the NBA and therefore will never be able to go from playoff team to true contender, unless their good players turn into great ones. Not only that, but as these players regress with age, they will be paying mediocre players the money of great ones and will have to go many steps backwards before even being in a position to rebuild.

Several successful teams have had to break up their championship winning groups when their players all expect more money in their next contract and only so many can be re-signed. It’s done to prevent dynasties and to keep the competition even and fair.

In rugby league, because there is no draft system, spending money correctly on retaining the right players and signing the right players externally is the main way to build a successful roster. The Melbourne Storm have kept their core of stars, but they also very wisely bring in unwanted guys from other clubs on reasonable contracts and then get the most out of their investment. Sure the team is reliant on Smith, Cronk and Slater to win championships, but they wouldn’t get there without the contributions of unheralded players like Brian Norrie and Ryan Hinchcliffe who were signed from elsewhere without much fanfare.

That brings me to the reason I am writing this article in the first place. The Penrith Panthers have just announced they have signed Jamie Soward from the Dragons for 2014. Ok, the Panthers clearly need a playmaker and Soward needs a change of scenery. It’s not the worst signing in the world in that regard.

The problem is that the Panthers have signed Soward on a four year deal from 2014 through to the end of the 2017 season. This is a bad decision in my opinion for several reasons. First and foremost Jamie Soward has not been playing at a high level since 2011 at best and really since his lead the Dragons to the premiership in 2010. Yes he has the talent and has been there before, so clearly he isn’t as bad as some people like to say about him, but again it matters that we are talking about the past and not the present.

Secondly he is going to be 29 years old when his Panthers contract begins and has done nothing in the last year or two to suggest he should just be handed a long term deal. Unlike a situation where you give a speculative long term contract to a young player who has shown potential, such as Parramatta signing Corey Norman, Jamie Soward by all accounts should have reached his peak by now and the majority of his Panthers years should be the downside of his career.

When you add his age to the fact he has already seemed to slip as a player it obviously means that signing him is a big risk. But ok, let’s say the Panthers think he simply needs a fresh start and can be the Soward of 2010 again… it still doesn’t justify handing him a four year deal.

Was the competition to sign him so fierce that they had to give him such security to get him to sign? I understand he was linked with Japanese rugby, but are the Panthers so super confident in Soward being their missing link that they are going to put all their eggs in his basket?

Why not offer him a one year deal to re-find his mojo and if he refuses that maybe you give him a second year to sweeten the deal?

The Panthers and specifically Gus Gould had done a fantastic job starting the Panthers rebuild. They brought in good players like Josh Mansour, Sika Manu and James Segeyaro. They are also dominating in the lower grades and age groups, which gives them great hope for the future. On top of that they had cap room to bring in the star they needed. They tried and failed to sign Johnathan Thurston and then were linked with Jarryd Hayne and John Sutton. All three players stayed with their current clubs and I’m sure the Panthers don’t begrudge them of that.

But in their desperation to find this star playmaker it appears as though they have given that long term contract being offered to the above names to Jamie Soward, who many believed was on his way out of the NRL altogether.

Again, I have no issue with offering Soward a lifeline and perhaps if things work out perfectly he re-finds his form and fixes the Panthers. But why commit so long term to him when it’s just as likely that he isn’t the answer and they are stuck for four years with a player they don’t want anymore.

Obviously we don’t know the dollar figure Soward has signed for, but I think it’s fair to believe that it’s not a small figure, especially if he is turning down the lucrative Japanese rugby offers. The best case scenario for the Panthers is that Soward equals that contract and they get their money’s worth, however in my opinion the risk for it to fail is too great.

I would have offered him a short term contract with the chance to prove himself and then renegotiate and if he wouldn’t go for it I would have looked elsewhere.

The Panthers just went all in and many will say they could have done it on a better hand.

Trial by Team List

Matt Ryan was surprisingly selected on the bench for the Eels

We are finally a day away from the start of the NRL season and that means we now have the team lists for the Round 1 matches. Whilst I already had thoughts on teams that would do better or worse in 2013, sometimes you really need to see what a team is putting out on the field to realise where they have improved or gotten worse.

As there are every year, there were certainly a few things I found surprising when I read the team lists yesterday, including some players I hadn’t even realised had changed clubs or had forgotten they had changed clubs until I was reminded by seeing their name.

Manly are still going to be a good team and have one of the best young halves combinations in the league, but their success is finally catching up with them as I was surprised by some of the names they picked. I knew Glenn Stewart was out and that Jamie Buhrer would fill in at 13, but I didn’t realise how weak they had become at prop. Brent Kite and new recruit Brenton Lawrence would have to be up there with the worst starting prop combinations in the league. They get the trusty Jason King back in Round 2, which helps enormously, but losing Darcy Lussick to Parramatta in the offseason means the Eagles will be hoping their youngsters (and Ritchie Fa’aoso) really step up and fill the void, because one thing we know is you need a platoon of props to get through the NRL season.

Justin Horo starting in the second row will also be interesting. He is one of those guys I forgot changed clubs and perhaps the change of scenery away from Parramatta will do him wonders as he is very talented.

Parramatta kick the Ricky Stuart era off on Saturday against the Warriors and I must admit how shocked I am that Matt Ryan is named on the bench. I thought he was going to be the direct replacement for Nathan Hindmarsh as the no nonsense tackle machine every team needs, especially Parramatta. Reni Maitua, Ben Smith and Joseph Paulo aren’t a bad back row, but for mine Ryan should be starting and playing near on 80 minutes. Also I still think Ben Roberts might just be the worst player in the NRL, but at least he isn’t starting anymore so that’s an improvement I guess.

The Warriors in the same match have named back rower Elijah Taylor at hooker and he has got to be the biggest hooker I can remember, at least in the modern era. The Warriors have a solid pack, strike weapons outside and I like Matt Elliott as a coach, but they are one of those teams that will live and die by how many points their halves can create. Shaun Johnson took a step backwards last year and needs to find an instant partnership with Thomas Leuluai for the Warriors to get back to winning ways.

The Bulldogs come into the season with four big names all out with Barba and Graham suspended and Kasiano and Pritchard injured. It is a testament to their depth that they are putting out a very solid team across the park anyway. A few years ago whilst at Canberra, Drury Low tore the Under 20’s competition apart, so it will be interesting to see how he goes on the wing for the Bulldogs while Barba gets his life together.

The Cowboys bench is scary. The idea of the Sims brothers and Jason Taumalolo coming on when the likes of Scott and Tamou need a break is frightening. They need young halfback Ray Thompson and new English hooker Sam Moore to complement Thurston and Bowen, but if they do they should be good. That being said, the Cowboys have underachieved before and if they do again this year it might spell the end of Neil Henry.

The Raiders backline depth is also quite staggering. In a game where both Dugan and Croker are out they have still named a fantastic backline. Reece Robinson would start at fullback for half the league and is only playing there because Dugan is out. Frankly if I were David Furner, Croker would struggle to get back into the side given his defensive frailties. Also… EDRICK LEE!

If I didn’t hate the Dragons (as any good Rabbitohs fan should) I would feel sorry for them. Their team just isn’t particularly good this year. Their best player is a winger and as good as he is a winger can’t carry you through a season. I think they have the worst halves combination in the league and whilst their forwards are all serviceable, they don’t have enough attacking potency in the squad. My tip is that Steve Price will be first coach fired in 2013 and watching them in the Charity Shield only made that belief stronger.

The Sharks team is interesting. They had a good year in 2012 but tapered off towards the end. As per usual their forward pack is very good and the signing of Michael Gordon is a big one (should he stay fit) and Beau Ryan should continue his solid play. I do wonder if they should have found a spot for Nathan Gardner somewhere as he is too talented to play reserve grade. I would have picked him over Jono Wright on the wing, despite Gardner’s lack of size. Once again the Sharks fortunes will rely on Todd Carney and he is coming back from a pretty nasty injury, so it is a real wait and see thing with the Sharks this year.

Finally I was surprised and happy to see the Tigers pick Jacob Miller at halfback and move Benji back to five-eighth. They signed Anasta but at this point I think the back row is the right place for him and Miller has been so good at Under 20’s level for so long that it is time he gets a real opportunity to make the halfback spot his own. They have to be patient with him, but if the Tigers want their premiership window to re-open I think Miller at 7 has to be part of that plan.

Obviously I didn’t touch on all teams but that is because the others were all right about what I expected of them. The Rabbitohs and Roosters should be a cracking season opener, even for a neutral and I’ll see you all at the footy.